The Value of a Contrarian Data Point in a Consensus Trade
When every forecast agrees, the information is usually already priced. What to do with the odd one out.
When every forecast agrees, the information is usually already priced. What to do with the odd one out.
Explanation is easier than prediction. A look at the structural bias in most published analysis.
We reviewed two years of our own notes. The patterns in what we tracked, and what we ignored, are instructive.
Acquisition activity is concentrating in niche corridors where specialist knowledge carries a premium.
Several firms have opened their own technical training programmes after struggling to fill skilled roles.
Interchange rules and scheme pricing are being renegotiated in several markets, with effects passing through to merchants.
The industry is moving away from long leases toward rolling plans, and the change is reshaping how spaces are designed.
Short-term volatility measures fell across the group as dollar moves settled.
Deal flow in the asset class has grown steadily as borrowers seek flexible structures outside the syndicated loan market.
Concentration in the leading index contributors has reached its highest level in several years.