Insights
The Value of a Contrarian Data Point in a Consensus Trade
When every forecast agrees, the information is usually already priced. What to do with the odd one out.
Analysis
Insights
Why Most Market Commentary Is Written After the Move
Explanation is easier than prediction. A look at the structural bias in most published analysis.
Insights
The Signal Log: What Two Years of Tracking Revealed
We reviewed two years of our own notes. The patterns in what we tracked, and what we ignored, are instructive.